The Year of the EV – Are we getting ahead of ourselves?

2011 seems to be the year pure EVs will turn from myth into reality with the introduction of the Nissan Leaf, Citroen C-Zero and Peugeot iOn into the mass automotive market. Other manufacturers will be rolling out their EV offerings soon after with the Volkswagen e-motion, Renault Fluence and Ford Focus EV expected in 2012. Mild and Plug-in Hybrids will also be introduced with the Prius Plug-in version highly anticipated. It can be easy to view this year and the next as the years that the EV finally hit the big time but our previous article (looking at previous False Dawns) will hopefully temper some of this enthusiasm. There is still a long road ahead if EVs are to become firmly established in the market and there is an argument that we might be looking too far into the future.

I sincerely hope the long term future of the personal vehicle is electric however, this most certainly is a long term ambition and we shouldn’t blind ourselves to any short and medium term options of addressing the associated problems with conventional vehicles. Pure EVs will have an important role to play between 2025 and 2050 but before then other technologies should not be forgotten. Mild hybrids are likely to become much more integrated into the market employing energy recovery systems and plug-in hybrids could see their desirability increase dependent on the price of oil over the next decade.

With Electric Vehicles, Experience Matters

The first vehicle trials with EVs held in the UK have produced their initial results regarding user impressions of the vehicles. Not surprisingly, the users tend to have sceptical views when starting the trail but as they become better acquainted with operating the vehicles to meet their mobility needs these views tend to become more positive. This affect is not solely limited to EVs but has been demonstrated with a number of new technology introductions. Experience and information seem to be the best way to overcome fears and anxiety concerning new technologies with the former usually more effective than the latter.

So if drivers need to have experience with EVs before they will tend to view them in a positive light and consider them for their next vehicle purchase, the question is how do we provide this experience? There are a number of ways that can be considered. Firstly, with improvements in computer and virtual reality technology the application of EV simulators is a real possibility. These would allow drivers to go for a virtual journey in an EV and get an impression of how these vehicles operate. This method does have the limitation that no matter how realistic the simulation is the user will always know that it is not genuine and so will question is validity. However, a simulator may prove to be a cheap option allowing a large number of drivers to experience an EV journeys from a central location.

The False Dawns of LEVs – A brief discussion of previous LEV failures

There is a rather pessimistic saying that history is bound to repeat itself which is a modification of George Santayana’s comment “those who cannot remember their past are condemned to repeat it”. This tautology has been adapted to serve a myriad of different purposes ranging from financial planning to military strategy. I for one think that it is a sound rule to keep in mind and it is something the current generation of people and companies working in the EV market should consider.

When the personal automobile first hit the roads in the early twentieth century the market was initially dominated by EVs. They were by far technically superior to their ICE compatriots but this superiority was quickly eroded by advancements in ICE engineering and also in its associated fuel, petroleum. It wasn’t long until pretty much every vehicle on the roads was powered by an ICE and this was how the market remained for the next 70 years. Things would change in the early 1980s with the automotive industry and industrialised economies having to take account of an external threat. The Oil Crisis’ of 1973 and 1980 showed how dependent oil importing industrialised nations were on a steady inflow of petroleum into their economies. When these supplies were put in danger oil prices rose dramatically with fuel shortages occurring across the globe.

LEVs – The Possibility of a Rebound Effect

Efficiency is one of those buzz words that has become embedded in professional circles with managers consistently stressing the need to continually increase it. In its simplest form, efficiency is an assessment of the level of output associated with a given level of input. By increasing efficiency, you are increasing the level of output given the same level of input. This seems like a win-win situation both for managers and systems analysts.

In energy terms, national statistics monitor the level of energy input required into the economic system of a country to generate a designated quantity of output (usually USD$). This statistic has decreased significantly over the last century as our industrialized economy became much more energy efficient. In relation to passenger vehicles, the internal combustion engine has undergone a similar transition with more energy being generated from a single input of fuel driven by technological advancement. It is not surprising that this improvement in energy efficiency has not all went into increasing vehicle range. Instead, vehicles have become more powerful, heavier and now incorporate more consumer electricals. Similarly, as our vehicles have become more energy efficient we have chosen to increase their utilization with substantial increases in vehicle miles driven.